Watch our Investment Update - January 2024 (video)
Watch our latest Investment Update video to hear our Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Ayrton Oliver, give us an update on the bond market and his predictions on where interest and mortgage rates are heading in 2024. January's update was hosted by our adviser Stephanie Whittaker.
Some of the key takeouts from the video include:
- After a volatile 2023, interest rate markets have now made up their mind that central banks have done enough to tame inflation and that interest rates are coming back down – but volatility will remain as new economic data comes in.
- Inflation is the key data point; central banks need to see this come back to target. Employment is also important as it can lead to inflation via wages, especially in services which are currently a focus of central banks.
Data this year has been resilient, the US economy appears healthy with data beating expectations. Inflation has been falling, but not fast enough for the Federal Reserve to declare victory yet. In New Zealand inflation has also fallen, but the domestic driven component remains a concern for the RBNZ. Employment data has been stronger than expected, driving wage increases. We are not expecting any rate cuts just yet.
- Global interest rate markets have got a little bit ahead of themselves, pricing in the expectation of multiple rate cuts this year, more than central banks have alluded to. In response to the stronger data, there is a risk that we see central banks cut rates later than currently expected.
- The end of the hiking cycle will be welcomed news for bonds, mortgage rates and equities, but given markets are already factoring in cuts it might be a while until we see further moves lower in interest rates.
- Any changes to the resilient economic outlook, such as a financial or geo-political shock, or the consumer slowing more than expected could mean interest rates need to be cut sooner and deeper than currently forecast, a positive for bonds but this could weigh on equities.