[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"article\u002Fmarket-update-october-2026":3},{"fullWidthTemplates":4,"headers":1029,"footers":1223},[5],{"url":6,"analyticsSourcePage":7,"name":8,"hideBreadcrumbs":7,"pageMetadata":9,"excludeSitemap":12,"showChatbot":7,"contentSections":13,"footerDisclaimers":980,"theme":7,"invertBreadcrumbsColour":7,"breadcrumbParent":7,"id":1028,"adminTitle":8},"article\u002Fmarket-update-october-2026",null,"Article - Market Update - October 2026",{"name":10,"property":7,"image":7,"content":11,"description":7},"Market update October 2026 | Investment insights from Generate","Read Generate’s September 2026 market update, with insights into global markets, key events and what they could mean for your KiwiSaver and Managed Funds.",false,[14],{"__typename":15,"id":16,"name":17,"headingText":18,"subheadingText":19,"thumbnail":20,"articleCategories":26,"author":32,"date":34,"articleContent":35},"Article","cmw48zqeotxce071i7c9rscwr","Article - Market Update - October 2026 ","Market Update - October 2026","",{"url":21,"altText":7,"size":22,"fileName":23,"title":24,"mimeType":25,"imageQuality":7},"https:\u002F\u002Fap-southeast-2.graphassets.com\u002FAKCbhBjCsTzKiieKkNfvxz\u002FkFCPjEtqT4KtP1x3mIIm",100616,"Market Update.png","Market update","image\u002Fpng",[27],{"name":28,"headingText":29,"template":30},"Article Category -  Market insights","Market insights",{"url":31},"news-and-guides\u002Finvesting-news-and-insights",[33],"Greg Smith, Investment Specialist","2026-10-09",{"raw":36,"references":979},{"children":37},[38,42,51,54,59,62,66,70,74,78,81,269,272,275,278,282,285,288,292,296,299,302,306,345,348,352,355,359,362,366,369,373,376,380,383,387,390,393,397,400,404,407,411,414,418,421,425,428,432,435,439,442,446,449,453,456,460,463,467,471,475,478,482,485,489,492,496,499,503,506,510,513,517,520,524,527,531,534,538,541,545,548,552,555,559,562,566,569,573,576,580,583,587,590,594,597,601,604,608,611,615,618,622,625,628,632,635,638,642,645,649,652,656,659,663,666,669,673,676,679,683,686,690,693,697,700,704,707,711,714,718,721,725,728,732,735,739,742,745,749,752,756,759,763,766,770,773,777,780,784,787,791,794,798,801,805,808,811,816,820,976],{"type":39,"children":40},"paragraph",[41],{"text":19},{"src":43,"type":44,"title":45,"width":46,"handle":47,"height":48,"children":49,"mimeType":25},"https:\u002F\u002Fap-southeast-2.graphassets.com\u002FAKCbhBjCsTzKiieKkNfvxz\u002FVd906k1WRpCiXfkItBUB","image","Market Update Banner (900 x 250 mm) (1).png",3402,"Vd906k1WRpCiXfkItBUB",945,[50],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":52},[53],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":56},"heading-three",[57],{"text":58},"October Market takeaway",{"type":39,"children":60},[61],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":63},[64],{"text":65},"An AI-led sell-off saw the Nasdaq record its weakest month since March 2025, although broader markets proved more resilient. The average stock rose, bonds rallied and central banks held rates steady, reinforcing October’s reminder of the value of diversification. Attention now turns to a pivotal November, with Anthropic’s expected listing set to provide another important test of AI valuations. The US midterm election result also introduces a new political dimension for the AI trade, particularly around the policy outlook for data-centre investment.",{"type":39,"children":67},[68],{"bold":69,"text":19,"italic":69},true,{"type":39,"children":71},[72],{"text":73}," ",{"type":55,"children":75},[76],{"text":77},"Market performance",{"type":39,"children":79},[80],{"text":19},{"type":82,"children":83},"table",[84],{"type":85,"children":86},"table_body",[87,109,129,149,169,189,209,229,249],{"type":88,"children":89},"table_row",[90,97,103],{"type":91,"children":92},"table_cell",[93],{"type":39,"children":94},[95],{"bold":69,"text":96},"Index",{"type":91,"children":98},[99],{"type":39,"children":100},[101],{"bold":69,"text":102},"September",{"type":91,"children":104},[105],{"type":39,"children":106},[107],{"bold":69,"text":108},"Year to date",{"type":88,"children":110},[111,117,123],{"type":91,"children":112},[113],{"type":39,"children":114},[115],{"text":116},"S&P 500",{"type":91,"children":118},[119],{"type":39,"children":120},[121],{"text":122},"-0.9%",{"type":91,"children":124},[125],{"type":39,"children":126},[127],{"text":128},"+10.7%",{"type":88,"children":130},[131,137,143],{"type":91,"children":132},[133],{"type":39,"children":134},[135],{"text":136},"Dow Jones",{"type":91,"children":138},[139],{"type":39,"children":140},[141],{"text":142},"+1.7%%",{"type":91,"children":144},[145],{"type":39,"children":146},[147],{"text":148},"+7.7%",{"type":88,"children":150},[151,157,163],{"type":91,"children":152},[153],{"type":39,"children":154},[155],{"text":156},"Nasdaq",{"type":91,"children":158},[159],{"type":39,"children":160},[161],{"text":162},"+5.3%",{"type":91,"children":164},[165],{"type":39,"children":166},[167],{"text":168},"+9.4%",{"type":88,"children":170},[171,177,183],{"type":91,"children":172},[173],{"type":39,"children":174},[175],{"text":176},"FTSE 100",{"type":91,"children":178},[179],{"type":39,"children":180},[181],{"text":182},"-1.2%",{"type":91,"children":184},[185],{"type":39,"children":186},[187],{"text":188},"+8.0%",{"type":88,"children":190},[191,197,203],{"type":91,"children":192},[193],{"type":39,"children":194},[195],{"text":196},"EURO STOXX 50",{"type":91,"children":198},[199],{"type":39,"children":200},[201],{"text":202},"-2.2%",{"type":91,"children":204},[205],{"type":39,"children":206},[207],{"text":208},"+5.8%",{"type":88,"children":210},[211,217,223],{"type":91,"children":212},[213],{"type":39,"children":214},[215],{"text":216},"Nikkei 225",{"type":91,"children":218},[219],{"type":39,"children":220},[221],{"text":222},"-5.2%",{"type":91,"children":224},[225],{"type":39,"children":226},[227],{"text":228},"+25.7%",{"type":88,"children":230},[231,237,243],{"type":91,"children":232},[233],{"type":39,"children":234},[235],{"text":236},"S&P\u002FASX 200",{"type":91,"children":238},[239],{"type":39,"children":240},[241],{"text":242},"+1.4%",{"type":91,"children":244},[245],{"type":39,"children":246},[247],{"text":248},"+2.2%",{"type":88,"children":250},[251,257,263],{"type":91,"children":252},[253],{"type":39,"children":254},[255],{"text":256},"S&P\u002FNZX 50 Gross",{"type":91,"children":258},[259],{"type":39,"children":260},[261],{"text":262},"-0.3%",{"type":91,"children":264},[265],{"type":39,"children":266},[267],{"text":268},"+1.8%",{"type":39,"children":270},[271],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":273},[274],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":276},[277],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":279},[280],{"text":281},"What shaped gobal markets in October?",{"type":39,"children":283},[284],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":286},[287],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":289},[290],{"text":291},"October was a month of two halves beneath the surface. Technology and AI-linked shares sold off sharply as investors shifted their attention from how fast AI revenue is growing to how much it costs to deliver, and the major US hyper-scalers’ earnings at month-end sharpened that debate. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.3%, to be around 8% below its record set earlier in the month.",{"type":39,"children":293},[294],{"text":295},"Elsewhere the picture was far healthier. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose, led by energy, consumer staples, utilities and health care, as the S&P500 itself slipped just 0.9%. That was the largest outperformance of the average stock over the index since April 2009. The lesson is about concentration: technology and communication services now make up close to half of the S&P 500, so a sell-off in a handful of AI names was enough to hide a strong month for the typical company. ",{"type":39,"children":297},[298],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":300},[301],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":303},[304],{"bold":69,"text":305},"READ MORE",{"type":307,"children":308},"bulleted-list",[309,323,334],{"type":310,"children":311},"list-item",[312],{"type":313,"children":314},"list-item-child",[315,316,322],{"text":19},{"href":317,"type":318,"title":319,"children":320,"openInNewTab":69},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.generatewealth.co.nz\u002Farticle\u002Finvesting-101-what-is-a-rally\u002F","link","What is a market rally?",[321],{"text":319},{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":324},[325],{"type":313,"children":326},[327,328,333],{"text":19},{"href":329,"type":318,"title":330,"children":331,"openInNewTab":69},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.generatewealth.co.nz\u002Farticle-when-markets-are-volatile-dont-miss-the-best-days\u002F","When markets are volatile, don't miss the best days",[332],{"text":330},{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":335},[336],{"type":313,"children":337},[338,339,344],{"text":19},{"href":340,"type":318,"title":341,"children":342,"openInNewTab":69},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.generatewealth.co.nz\u002Fmanaged-funds\u002Fjoin\u002F","Open a Managed Fund",[343],{"text":341},{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":346},[347],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":349},[350],{"text":351},"Geopolitics stayed in the foreground. Attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz were the most frequent since the conflict began in February, and Brent crude rose roughly 13% in October, its fourth consecutive monthly gain, to finish above US$110 a barrel. Energy was the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, and Big Oil reaped the rewards, with ExxonMobil’s quarterly profit more than doubling and Chevron’s almost tripling as tight refining capacity lifted margins.",{"type":39,"children":353},[354],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":356},[357],{"text":358},"The global economy has nevertheless proved hard to knock over. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027, and estimates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could have cost about 0.9 percentage points of 2026 growth, will moderate to 0.3 once supply responses elsewhere and the world’s lower oil intensity are counted. China added to the sense of resilience, with third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5% a touch ahead of expectations, although property investment is down more than 20% this year and Chinese shares were weak in October.",{"type":39,"children":360},[361],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":363},[364],{"text":365},"Rates, inflation and bond yields",{"type":39,"children":367},[368],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":370},[371],{"text":372},"The message from central banks during the month was patience with a hawkish tilt. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, with both dissenters preferring an increase, and signalled it can afford to wait for more data. The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% after two rises this year, with euro-area inflation at 3.8%. The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote, noting that underlying inflation is now broadly consistent with its 2% target, a milestone after decades of deflation. Markets still expect further tightening to remain possible at the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England.",{"type":39,"children":374},[375],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":377},[378],{"text":379},"Bond markets, which dominated September, calmed. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.34% at the start of October, its highest since 2002, before finishing the month at about 4.93%. That came despite inflation moving higher again: US CPI rose to 3.7% in September, producer prices rose 6.3%, and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure rose to 3.6% (3.1% excluding food and energy), with oil the main driver.",{"type":39,"children":381},[382],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":384},[385],{"text":386},"What shaped United States markets?",{"type":39,"children":388},[389],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":391},[392],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":394},[395],{"text":396},"The US economy remained strong. Third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, ahead of expectations and up from 2.2% in the June quarter, with consumer spending up 3.8% and business equipment investment particularly strong. Corporate earnings were strong again: with 60% of S&P 500 companies reported, third-quarter earnings growth is running at about 30%. S&P Global’s flash PMIs for October showed strong levels of expansion for both the manufacturing and services sectors.",{"type":39,"children":398},[399],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":401},[402],{"text":403},"The US banks also delivered a solid earnings season. Results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were supported by resilient net interest income, healthier investment-banking pipelines and strong trading activity. Credit quality remained broadly manageable, although management teams continued to monitor pressure on lower-income consumers and the effect of higher funding costs.",{"type":39,"children":405},[406],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":408},[409],{"text":410},"Elsewhere, company updates were mixed but generally consistent with a resilient US consumer and continued investment in long-term growth. SpaceX reported further expansion across Starlink and its launch business, while Tesla’s result showed revenue growth but continued margin pressure as pricing, product investment and manufacturing costs weighed on profitability. American Express delivered another strong quarter, supported by higher cardmember spending, fee income and customer growth, with credit trends remaining broadly stable. Results from several key ‘bellwethers’ reinforced the story around resilience, with Coca-Cola, Visa, UPS and FedEx all reporting solid growth and lifting forecasts. ",{"type":39,"children":412},[413],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":415},[416],{"text":417},"The US labour market is cooling gently rather than cracking. September payrolls rose by only 29,000 and wage growth slowed to 3%, its weakest since 2021, but unemployment edged up only to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%, which the Fed can read as a “Goldilocks” outcome. US households remain gloomy, with sentiment near record lows, yet they keep spending: retail sales rose 0.8% in September, although only 0.2% excluding fuel. The divide is K-shaped, with higher-income households supported by strong asset prices and lower-income households squeezed by living costs.",{"type":39,"children":419},[420],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":422},[423],{"text":424},"Big Tech earnings: the hyperscalers report",{"type":39,"children":426},[427],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":429},[430],{"text":431},"The main event of the final week was Big Tech earnings, and the message was about cash. Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, the four largest spenders on AI infrastructure, all reported strong revenue and cloud growth, but three of the four reported negative free cash flow as capital spending outran the cash their businesses generate. Together they are guiding to roughly US$730 billion of capital spending this year, mainly on AI data centres, chips and power. Microsoft (whose shares finished higher over the month) was the exception, and the market noticed.",{"type":39,"children":433},[434],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":436},[437],{"text":438},"The market’s focus shifted from growth to cash. Alphabet’s shares fell more than 12% the day after it reported, despite Google Cloud revenue more than doubling, and disappointing results from Amazon and Intel helped push the Nasdaq Composite lower. Amazon and Microsoft both pointed to higher memory costs, and Microsoft said it will turn to the bond market, a reminder that AI spending is increasingly funded by external capital as well as operating cash flow. Semiconductor stocks were weak all month. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight straight sessions to 16 October, its longest losing streak since 2008. We discuss what this means for the wider AI debate in the “AI Bubble” section below.",{"type":39,"children":440},[441],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":443},[444],{"text":445},"AI bubble: overhyped, underhyped, or both?",{"type":39,"children":447},[448],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":450},[451],{"text":452},"Last month saw investors question the scale, financing and valuation of AI investment. Reports of lower-than-expected revenues at ChatGPT owner OpenAI reinforced the concern that, while demand is real, investors are becoming more selective about how it is funded and what price they pay.",{"type":39,"children":454},[455],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":457},[458],{"text":459},"The hyper-scaler results, covered above, turned that concern into a market event. Revenue and cloud growth were strong, but three of the four companies reported negative free cash flow against roughly US$730 billion of combined capital spending, and investors began asking not whether AI demand is real, but who is paying for the build-out and for how long it can be funded. ",{"type":39,"children":461},[462],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":464},[465],{"text":466},"Have we entered a massive overinvestment cycle?",{"type":39,"children":468},[469],{"text":470},"We are not convinced that AI has entered a late-stage overinvestment cycle. The build-out appears closer to the earlier phase of the internet boom, although the headline spending is enormous and input costs for chips, memory, electricity, cooling and computing capacity are rising quickly.",{"type":39,"children":472},[473],{"text":474},"AI can be overhyped in the near term and underappreciated over the long term. Expectations are elevated, but this does not bear the hallmarks of a simple repeat of the dot-com bubble: the leading platforms have substantial revenue, earnings and customers, and far greater capacity to fund investment than heavily indebted newcomers. Valuations still require discipline, but strong earnings growth means headline P\u002FE multiples do not tell the whole story. On a PEG basis, which compares the P\u002FE ratio with expected earnings growth, many of these businesses look considerably less extreme. Nvidia, for example, trades at around 17 times forward earnings while forecasting revenue growth of about 70% next year.",{"type":39,"children":476},[477],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":479},[480],{"text":481},"The demand side",{"type":39,"children":483},[484],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":486},[487],{"text":488},"The demand side is still early. The chart below compares AI spending per employee since 2025 with US fixed broadband subscriptions from 1999, both rebased to 100. AI adoption today looks roughly comparable to broadband around 2000, when only about 3% of American households had access. The comparison is imperfect, but broadband kept growing strongly for another decade, and it suggests current AI spending may be an early stage of adoption rather than a peak. The beneficiaries are also spreading beyond chipmakers and software into power generation, grids and cooling, as long-term power agreements signed by several hyper-scalers illustrate.",{"type":39,"children":490},[491],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":493},[494],{"text":495},"What we are watching",{"type":39,"children":497},[498],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":500},[501],{"text":502},"Three things matter most from here. The first is whether businesses and consumers keep paying for AI as fast as the infrastructure is being built, because if spending on services slows while capacity keeps growing, supply may be getting ahead of demand. The second is how the spending is funded, since spending paid for from cash flow is less risky than spending paid for with debt or new share issues. The third is policy: with Democrats now set to control Congress, and with state-level opposition to data centres growing, construction could slow. That could ease costs for the big, cash-rich platforms, but it is a risk for heavily indebted builders. Finally, bubbles usually bring widespread speculation, and we are not yet seeing the kind of public euphoria that marked previous market peaks.",{"type":39,"children":504},[505],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":507},[508],{"text":509},"What it means for portfolios",{"type":39,"children":511},[512],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":514},[515],{"text":516},"Transformative technologies often attract periods of overinvestment, and the eventual winners are not always obvious at the outset. That is why we are selective. The Magnificent Seven are often treated as a single group, but October showed how differently they can behave: some are funding their AI spending from strong cash flow, while others are spending faster than they earn. There are members of that group we favour and others we do not, and we judge each on its own merits rather than owning the theme as a block. ",{"type":39,"children":518},[519],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":521},[522],{"text":523},"Our focus is on companies with durable advantages, sound funding and a credible path from investment to sustainable earnings, at a price that still leaves room for a reasonable return. We remain disciplined where market expectations appear excessive.",{"type":39,"children":525},[526],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":528},[529],{"text":530},"Anthropic’s Listing: November Could Be a Pivotal Moment",{"type":39,"children":532},[533],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":535},[536],{"text":537},"Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed its paperwork on 26 October to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The share price and listing date haven’t been set, but media reports suggest shares could start trading in the weeks before the US Thanksgiving holiday on 26 November, subject to regulatory review and market conditions. It matters beyond Anthropic itself: it would be the first time public investors can directly put a price on a leading AI company, so how the shares are received could shape how the market thinks about AI valuations. A strong debut could help repair the sentiment hit in October, a weak one would add to concerns about AI spending, and a very large share sale could temporarily draw money away from other AI shares.",{"type":39,"children":539},[540],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":542},[543],{"text":544},"Valuations after the sell-off",{"type":39,"children":546},[547],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":549},[550],{"text":551},"The sell-off in the tech sector has also taken some heat out of valuations, because earnings have grown so quickly. The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio ended October at about 18.7, below its five-year average of 19.8 and its ten-year average of 19.1, and well down from roughly 22 at the start of the year. The technology sector itself is now trading at its cheapest level relative to the S&P 500 since 2017, even though the sector is still delivering stronger earnings growth than the rest of the market. Valuation risk has not disappeared, particularly in the largest AI names, but the broader market is not as stretched as the headlines suggest.",{"type":39,"children":553},[554],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":556},[557],{"text":558},"The US Midterms: Result and Market Reaction",{"type":39,"children":560},[561],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":563},[564],{"text":565},"The midterm elections, held just after month-end, added a new factor to the outlook for AI stocks. The Democrats appear to have won control of both the House and the Senate. A House result was widely expected, but the Senate outcome was less certain, with prediction-market odds for a Democratic majority rising above 90% as the night progressed. President Trump indicated he expects to work with the Democrats, and there has so far been no sign of a contested result, which removed one of the risks investors had been weighing.",{"type":39,"children":567},[568],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":570},[571],{"text":572},"The initial market reaction has been positive. A sharp fall in oil prices helped as investors bet the Democratic win will push the White House to end the war with Iran. No deal is close, but if lower oil prices last, they would ease the inflation pressure behind this year’s higher bond yields. ",{"type":39,"children":574},[575],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":577},[578],{"text":579},"The policy issue to watch is data centres. Texas has roughly 27% of US data-centre capacity, and its newly elected Democratic governor has called for a moratorium and an end to tax incentives for new projects, while ballot measures on data-centre development were rejected in several states. We think this is more likely to slow the AI roll-out than stop it. Democrats won in states such as Texas that have long been Republican, and they will want to keep those voters and avoid alienating supporters who benefit from data-centre jobs, construction and power investment. That points to tighter conditions on planning, energy use and incentives rather than outright bans.",{"type":39,"children":581},[582],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":584},[585],{"text":586},"History also offers some comfort: since 1950 the S&P 500 has risen by an average of nearly 15% in the following 6 months post the mid-terms. ",{"type":55,"children":588},[589],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":591},[592],{"text":593},"What shaped European markets?",{"type":39,"children":595},[596],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":598},[599],{"text":600},"European markets were mixed. The FTSE 100 gained 1.2% to finish the month at 10,730, helped by energy and defensive companies. The EURO STOXX 50 fell 2.2% as weakness in technology and higher oil prices weighed. Both indices remain comfortably positive for the year. Euro-area growth was better than feared, with GDP up 0.4% in the third quarter, twice the expected pace. ",{"type":39,"children":602},[603],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":605},[606],{"text":607},"What shaped Asian markets?",{"type":39,"children":609},[610],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":612},[613],{"text":614},"Japan was among the weakest markets we track. The Nikkei 225 fell 5.2% in October as its heavy exposure to semiconductor and AI supply-chain companies worked against it, although it remains up 25.7% for the year. A weak yen kept policymakers alert to intervention. ",{"type":39,"children":616},[617],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":619},[620],{"text":621},"Chinese and Hong Kong shares were also weak, with the CSI 300 suffering two weekly falls of roughly 3%, as company earnings disappointed and the global tech sell-off spread. The Chinese economy itself is two-speed: manufacturing and exports are doing the heavy lifting, retail sales growth picked up to 1.1% in September, but fixed investment is down 7.2% over the first nine months and property investment is down 20.6%.",{"type":39,"children":623},[624],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":626},[627],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":629},[630],{"text":631},"What shaped Australian markets?",{"type":39,"children":633},[634],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":636},[637],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":639},[640],{"text":641},"The S&P\u002FASX 200 gained 1.4% in October to finish at 8,908, with gains concentrated at the top end of the market and small caps weaker. The rotation was defensive and sharp: utilities rose about 10%, financials more than 9% and health care about 9%, while materials fell 6% and information technology fell around 3%. With limited exposure to the AI mega-caps, Australia’s banks and defensive sectors carried the index.",{"type":39,"children":643},[644],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":646},[647],{"text":648},"Inflation, jobs and the RBA",{"type":39,"children":650},[651],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":653},[654],{"text":655},"Economic data pulled in different directions. Unemployment held at a five-year high of 4.7% in September and employment fell by more than 39,000, which briefly cut the odds of another rate rise. But September inflation, released on 28 October, was hotter: headline CPI rose 0.8% in the month and 4.3% over the year, including a 9.4% surge in fuel, and trimmed-mean inflation of 3.7% was slightly above expectations, with sticky domestic services inflation suggesting the problem is not only imported energy.",{"type":39,"children":657},[658],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":660},[661],{"text":662},"After month-end, on 3 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest cash rate since November 2008. The Bank now expects headline inflation to peak at around 4.5% and to remain above 3% until late 2027, although it stopped short of signalling further rises. The strain on households is visible: Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment fell 4.7% to 80.4, and Westpac’s own outlook is for house prices to fall 10.9% in the year to March 2027, unemployment to reach 4.8% and the first rate cuts not to arrive until the second half of 2027.",{"type":39,"children":664},[665],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":667},[668],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":670},[671],{"text":672},"What shaped New Zealand markets?",{"type":39,"children":674},[675],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":677},[678],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":680},[681],{"text":682},"The S&P\u002FNZX 50 Gross Index was little changed in October, slipping around 0.4%, and the NZX 50 ended the month at 13,797 after a 0.5% gain in the final week. There were genuinely encouraging signs from the economy, although it remains a two-speed economy.",{"type":39,"children":684},[685],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":687},[688],{"text":689},"Economic Activity and Confidence",{"type":39,"children":691},[692],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":694},[695],{"text":696},"Manufacturing continues to be one of the brighter spots. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 in September from 53.3, with production and new orders both at 57.0, and the sector has now expanded for 15 consecutive months. Aside from June’s spike, it was the strongest reading since 2021, and growth was broad-based across industries. Services are recovering more gradually: the Performance of Services Index held at 50.9, a fourth consecutive month of expansion after two years of contraction, with employment the weak spot. A weaker New Zealand dollar is a tailwind for exporters.",{"type":39,"children":698},[699],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":701},[702],{"text":703},"Business confidence picked up noticeably. The QSBO showed a net 40% of firms now expect economic conditions to improve, up from just 14% previously, and hiring and investment intentions improved as well, although actual activity is still lagging that optimism and pricing and cost pressures eased rather than accelerated. Consumers remain more cautious: ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence slipped to 96.2 in October from 97.6, with current conditions weaker but expectations for finances a year ahead improving. The rural economy had good news, with two consecutive positive dairy auctions: prices rose 1.2% and then 2.5%, the strongest gain since early March, led by whole milk powder.",{"type":39,"children":705},[706],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":708},[709],{"text":710},"Inflation remains the complication. Annual CPI eased from 4.1% to 3.7% in the September quarter, slightly better than the Reserve Bank’s 3.9% forecast, but petrol is still 19.1% higher than a year ago, 85.5% of the CPI basket rose in price, and Stats NZ estimates headline inflation would have been 3.2% without petrol. ",{"type":39,"children":712},[713],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":715},[716],{"text":717},"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand then surprised markets by holding the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% in a 4–3 vote, when almost every major bank had expected an increase. We agreed with the decision and our portfolios were positioned for it. With unemployment at 5.6%, around a decade high, GDP growth of only 0.2% in the June quarter and weak household demand making it hard for firms to pass on costs, the decision gives the Bank more time to assess whether fuel-driven inflation is becoming embedded in domestic prices. The Bank expects inflation to reach about 4.4% this quarter, largely because of fuel. The next decision is in December, and the General Election on 7 November adds another layer of uncertainty.",{"type":39,"children":719},[720],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":722},[723],{"text":724},"Corporate Developments",{"type":39,"children":726},[727],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":729},[730],{"text":731},"There were green shoots at company level. Hallenstein Glasson rose to a record high after a near 50% increase in annual profit, Fletcher Building reported first-quarter volumes ahead of last year across most businesses, although commercial construction and Auckland residential remain soft, and Vulcan Steel was stronger still, with first-quarter revenue up 39%, daily volumes up 27% and earnings up 51%. Skellerup reported first-quarter profit 15% ahead, while Air New Zealand highlighted the other side of the ledger: jet fuel averaged US$140 a barrel in the quarter versus US$85 a year ago, forcing it to cut capacity and lift fares.",{"type":39,"children":733},[734],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":736},[737],{"text":738},"Early November brought more corporate news, including KMD Brands confirming exclusive talks with Bluestar Alliance over a potential takeover (there is no binding offer), and The Warehouse setting a target of NZ$100 million of operating profit within three to five years. Overall, the kiwi economy is improving, but it is certainly not firing on all cylinders just yet.",{"type":39,"children":740},[741],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":743},[744],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":746},[747],{"text":748},"Generate's portfolio positioning",{"type":39,"children":750},[751],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":753},[754],{"text":755},"Selective exposure across AI infrastructure, including memory, optical networking, semiconductor equipment, power generation and energy infrastructure. Preference for companies with durable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets and a credible path from investment to sustainable free cash flow. Broader portfolio diversification as market leadership rotates beyond the largest technology companies.",{"type":39,"children":757},[758],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":760},[761],{"text":762},"October’s market rotation reinforced the value of active security selection. Generate retains exposure to the long-term AI theme, but the emphasis is on where economic value is most likely to accrue rather than on the theme alone. This includes enabling businesses, as well as selected optical-networking, semiconductor-equipment, power-generation and energy-infrastructure companies. Position sizes and valuations remain central to the process, particularly where capital requirements are rising or funding depends more heavily on external markets. This approach is designed to participate in structural growth while limiting reliance on a small group of highly valued companies.",{"type":39,"children":764},[765],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":767},[768],{"text":769},"Looking ahead - market outlook and key issues for November",{"type":39,"children":771},[772],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":774},[775],{"text":776},"The main things we are watching in November are how Anthropic’s share sale goes, whether worries about AI spending ease or get worse after the Big Tech results, and what happens to oil and inflation as the Iran war develops. We are also watching central banks and US jobs data, then the Fed and the RBNZ in December. The wider effects of the US midterm result, especially on data centres, tax and financial rules, are still being worked out. New Zealand’s General Election is on 7 November.",{"type":39,"children":778},[779],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":781},[782],{"text":783},"Markets enter November with the economy holding up and company profits solid, but with interest rates higher and investors more nervous about AI. The big question is whether AI companies’ revenue and cash flow can keep up with how much they are spending. Company results, economic data and any big share sales in the coming weeks should give us more answers. We are alert to opportunities as they come up, particularly where prices have fallen further than the businesses justify.",{"type":39,"children":785},[786],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":788},[789],{"text":790},"History is on investors’ side after midterm elections, although it can’t predict what happens next. Lower technology valuations and solid profits could support markets into 2027, but what happens will depend on inflation, government policy (including data-centre policy) and whether companies deliver on earnings.",{"type":39,"children":792},[793],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":795},[796],{"text":797},"Closer to home, we will be following how coalition negotiations play out and the potential impact on various sectors. We are also watching Australia closely, with the economy showing signs of creaking. Both situations may create opportunities.",{"type":39,"children":799},[800],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":802},[803],{"text":804},"For long-term investors, the outlook is positive but selective. We stay focused on spreading risk across our portfolios, owning good businesses with strong balance sheets, and not overpaying for future growth.",{"type":39,"children":806},[807],{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":809},[810],{"text":19},{"type":55,"children":812},[813,815],{"bold":69,"text":814},"Official Source Index",{"text":73},{"type":39,"children":817},[818],{"text":819},"The links below point to official data, research and monetary-policy pages referenced in this market update. ",{"type":307,"children":821},[822,833,844,855,866,877,888,899,910,921,932,943,954,965],{"type":310,"children":823},[824],{"type":313,"children":825},[826,827,832],{"text":19},{"href":828,"type":318,"children":829,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm",[830],{"text":831},"Federal Reserve - monetary policy and FOMC decisions",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":834},[835],{"type":313,"children":836},[837,838,843],{"text":19},{"href":839,"type":318,"children":840,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bea.gov\u002Fdata\u002Fgdp\u002Fgross-domestic-product",[841],{"text":842},"US Bureau of Economic Analysis - gross domestic product",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":845},[846],{"type":313,"children":847},[848,849,854],{"text":19},{"href":850,"type":318,"children":851,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sec.gov\u002Fedgar\u002Fsearch\u002F",[852],{"text":853},"US Securities and Exchange Commission - EDGAR company filings (Anthropic PBC, Form S-1)",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":856},[857],{"type":313,"children":858},[859,860,865],{"text":19},{"href":861,"type":318,"children":862,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fpress\u002Fgovcdec\u002Fmopo\u002Fhtml\u002Findex.en.html",[863],{"text":864},"European Central Bank - monetary-policy decisions",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":867},[868],{"type":313,"children":869},[870,871,876],{"text":19},{"href":872,"type":318,"children":873,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bankofengland.co.uk\u002Fmonetary-policy-summary-and-minutes",[874],{"text":875},"Bank of England - monetary-policy decisions",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":878},[879],{"type":313,"children":880},[881,882,887],{"text":19},{"href":883,"type":318,"children":884,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.boj.or.jp\u002Fen\u002Fmopo\u002Fmpmdeci\u002Findex.htm",[885],{"text":886},"Bank of Japan - monetary-policy meeting decisions",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":889},[890],{"type":313,"children":891},[892,893,898],{"text":19},{"href":894,"type":318,"children":895,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.imf.org\u002Fen\u002FPublications\u002FWEO",[896],{"text":897},"International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":900},[901],{"type":313,"children":902},[903,904,909],{"text":19},{"href":905,"type":318,"children":906,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.rba.gov.au\u002Fmonetary-policy\u002Fint-rate-decisions\u002F",[907],{"text":908},"Reserve Bank of Australia - interest-rate decisions",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":911},[912],{"type":313,"children":913},[914,915,920],{"text":19},{"href":916,"type":318,"children":917,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abs.gov.au\u002Fstatistics",[918],{"text":919},"Australian Bureau of Statistics - Consumer Price Index and Labour Force",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":922},[923],{"type":313,"children":924},[925,926,931],{"text":19},{"href":927,"type":318,"children":928,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.anz.com.au\u002Fabout-us\u002Feconomic-and-market-research\u002F",[929],{"text":930},"ANZ Australia - economic and market research, including ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":933},[934],{"type":313,"children":935},[936,937,942],{"text":19},{"href":938,"type":318,"children":939,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.stats.govt.nz\u002Findicators\u002Fgross-domestic-product-gdp\u002F",[940],{"text":941},"Stats NZ - consumer price index and gross domestic product",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":944},[945],{"type":313,"children":946},[947,948,953],{"text":19},{"href":949,"type":318,"children":950,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bnz.co.nz\u002Fabout-us\u002Feconomy-markets\u002Fresearch",[951],{"text":952},"BNZ-BusinessNZ - economic research, including PMI and PSI",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":955},[956],{"type":313,"children":957},[958,959,964],{"text":19},{"href":960,"type":318,"children":961,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.anz.co.nz\u002Fabout-us\u002Feconomic-markets-research\u002F",[962],{"text":963},"ANZ New Zealand - economic and market research, including Consumer Confidence and Business Outlook",{"text":19},{"type":310,"children":966},[967],{"type":313,"children":968},[969,970,975],{"text":19},{"href":971,"type":318,"children":972,"openInNewTab":12},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.rbnz.govt.nz\u002Fmonetary-policy\u002Fabout-monetary-policy\u002Fthe-official-cash-rate",[973],{"text":974},"Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Official Cash Rate",{"text":19},{"type":39,"children":977},[978],{"text":19,"underline":69},[],[981],{"symbol":7,"disclaimerTheme":7,"disclaimer":982},{"raw":983},{"children":984},[985],{"type":39,"children":986},[987,989,994,996,998,1003,1005,1010,1012,1018,1020,1026],{"text":988,"italic":69},"No part of this article is intended as financial advice; it is intended as general information only. To see our Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement, please see ",{"href":990,"type":318,"children":991,"openInNewTab":69},"\u002Ffile\u002Fdoc\u002Fgenerate-fap-disclosure-statement",[992],{"text":993,"italic":69},"Generate FAP Disclosure Statement",{"text":995},". ",{"text":997,"italic":69},"For more information see the ",{"href":999,"type":318,"title":1000,"children":1001,"openInNewTab":69},"\u002Ffile\u002Fdoc\u002Fkiwisaver-pds","Generate KiwiSaver Scheme Product Disclosure Statement",[1002],{"text":1000,"italic":69},{"text":1004,"italic":69}," or the  ",{"href":1006,"type":318,"children":1007,"openInNewTab":12},"\u002Ffile\u002Fdoc\u002Fmanaged-funds-pds\u002F",[1008],{"text":1009,"italic":69},"Generate Unit Trust Scheme (Managed Funds) Product Disclosure Statement",{"text":1011,"italic":69}," or the fund updates for ",{"href":1013,"type":318,"title":1014,"children":1015,"openInNewTab":69},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.generatewealth.co.nz\u002Fkiwisaver\u002Ffund-updates\u002F","Fund updates for Generate KiwiSaver Scheme",[1016],{"text":1017,"italic":69},"KiwiSaver",{"text":1019,"italic":69}," and for ",{"href":1021,"type":318,"title":1022,"children":1023,"openInNewTab":69},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.generatewealth.co.nz\u002Fmanaged-funds\u002Ffund-updates\u002F","Fund Updates for Generate Managed Funds",[1024],{"text":1025,"italic":69},"Managed Funds",{"text":1027,"italic":69},". The issuer of both schemes is Generate Investment Management Limited. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.","cmw49lgyrvth1072sxtqoyx6d",[1030],{"internalName":1031,"logo":1032,"navigationItems":1039,"headerButtons":1212,"memberLoginUrl":1220,"adviserLoginUrl":1221,"joinGenerateKiwiSaverUrl":1222,"joinGenerateManagedFundsUrl":1138,"announcementBar":7,"searchUrl":7},"Level 0 - Global Header",{"url":1033,"altText":1034,"size":1035,"fileName":1036,"title":1037,"mimeType":1038,"imageQuality":7},"https:\u002F\u002Fap-southeast-2.graphassets.com\u002FAKCbhBjCsTzKiieKkNfvxz\u002Fc3DCsRYBQFyZRTm4CmX0","White version of Generate logo",15503,"white_no tagline.svg","Generate logo white","image\u002Fsvg+xml",[1040,1068,1131,1168,1197,1207],{"id":1041,"title":1042,"url":1043,"icon":7,"childItems":1044,"isMainPage":7},"clemb8tee1chw0b2wwcfit8yy","Why 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